Analysis of spatial pattern of aerosol optical depth and affecting factors using spatial autocorrelation and spatial autoregressive model

Abstract

Previous studies neglected the implicit information in the spatial pattern of the aerosol optical depth (AOD), such as spatial configuration characteristics, spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence. The understanding of AOD is helpful in accurately estimating the environmental and climatic effects from aerosols. In this study, a method of spatial autocorrelation statistics from geostatistics was applied to investigate the spatial pattern of AOD in Hubei province in central China during the period 2003–2008. Spatial autoregressive models were used to quantize the correlations between AOD and affecting factors, such as elevation, forest coverage and population density. In addition, the difference between the standard linear regression model and the spatial models was discussed. The results were as follows: the spatial pattern of AOD in Hubei province shows significant spatial autocorrelation, indicating that AODs are clustered such that higher AODs tend to be surrounded by higher AOD neighbors, while lower AODs are surrounded by lower AOD neighbors, and the spatial autocorrelation scale of the AOD over Hubei is approximately 400 km. The high–high zone is mainly distributed in the Wuhan city circle and the Jianghan plain areas, while the low–low zones are mainly located in the middle and high mountain areas of northwest Hubei province. The overall degree and pattern of spatial autocorrelation do not change largely from 2003 to 2008, which indicates a stable spatial configuration of AOD. A significant negative spatial autocorrelation exists between AOD and elevation, which may suggest that AOD and elevation have an inverse spatial distribution, and the same applies for forest coverage. Population density and the AOD show a significant positive spatial autocorrelation, which may imply that they have similar spatial distribution, while industrial production and AOD do not show an obvious positive spatial autocorrelation. Spatial autoregressive models show better predictive ability and stability than the standard linear regression model because the spatial autocorrelation of the AOD is taken into consideration.