Analysis Of Spatial Distribution Of Human Development Index In Republic Of Bashkortostan

Abstract

The goal of this study is to carry out a complex analysis and identify spatial dependencies in the human capital distribution in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The indicator to measure human capital is the Human Development Index calculated for each of municipalities of the Republic of Bashkortostan in dynamics from 2007 to 2013. For performing a complex study of spatial dependencies in the distribution of the HDI, the author proposes a five-stage technique. The first stage of the study resulted in forming a weighted spatial matrix of inverse distances between municipalities administrative centers. During the second stage that involved calculating global and local indices of spatial autocorrelation, the hypothesis of the presence of spatial dependencies in HDI distribution was confirmed. The third stage allowed visually analyzing the spatial intercorrelation of the HDI for particular municipalities based on scatter plots. The fourth stage consisted of the maximum likelihood estimation of the spatial autoregression and spatial error models provided the opportunity for a quantitative estimation of the identified intercorrelation in the spatial distribution of the HDI in municipalities. The concluding part was devoted to interpreting obtained results of spatial regression modeling. Research results showed that the distribution of the Human Development Index in the Republic of Bashkortostan is characterized by stable positive spatial autocorrelation. The dynamics display a strengthening of spatial dependencies in the HDI distribution in the Republic of Bashkortostan, explained by the increasing role of urbanization and convergence of human resources to relatively big cities