Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the Epidemic of Schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake Region

Abstract

Abstract The distribution of schistosomiasis has obvious regional characteristics. As the only intermediate host of schistosomiasis, Oncomelania's breeding and distribution influence the prevalence and transmission of schistosomiasis directly. The cercaria of Schistosoma has a significant seasonal variation in Poyang Lake. This paper selects molluscicidal Oncomelania statistics, temperature, and precipitation of eight epidemics of schistosomiases in Poyang Lake. It constructs schistosomiasis transmission index prediction model of Poyang Lake to predict the propagation of Schistosomiasis. It analyzes the spatial variation of Oncomelania islet making use of Theil coefficient. Then, it analyzes the epidemic of Schistosomiasis spatial and temporal distribution features making use of GIS, Excel and SPSS in Poyang Lake based on climate changes. The results have shown that, the rapid increase of population in epidemic is not only related to the change of temperature and precipitation in each county, but also related to temperature positively and precipitation inversely in Poyang Lake. The transmission of Schistosomiasis is not only of great differences in time but also in scale with large district and spatial variation in Poyang Lake Region. Appropriate habitat of Oncomelania and schistosoma has been moving northward, which maybe result in the transmission of schistosomiasis moving northward. Further impacts on the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis spread in Poyang Lake Region.