Analysis of solar energy potentials of five selected south-east cities in nigeria using deep learning algorithms

Abstract

This study presents a meticulous examination of the solar energy potential of five selected metropolitan cities (Abakaliki, Awka, Enugu, Owerri, and Umuahia) in Eastern part of Nigeria using deep learning algorithm, specifically the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. These cities, despite being characterized by extended rainy seasons and a high level of cloudiness, are suitable environment for solar power generation and investment opportunities. The employed methodology capitalized on the LSTM deep learning approach to analyze and predict energy generation, utilizing comprehensive hourly weather data from the National Airspace Agency (NASA). The data set comprised various parameters, such as date/time, solar azimuth angle, temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover, and power, enabling a thorough analysis of each city. To ensure accuracy, energy prediction capabilities were benchmarked against real-time datasets from a solar power plant in Ulsan, South Korea, thereby training and fine-tuning the model for precision. The LSTM model's performance metrics were maintained at a learning rate of 0.07, a batch size of 150, and a train-test split ratio of 0.8 to 0.2. Data validation exhibited a mean square error (MSE) of 0.01, demonstrating the model’s reliability. Results showed Enugu as having the highest solar energy potential, averaging 6.25 kWh/day, while Awka registered the most substantial electricity demand across various sectors. These findings highlight the substantial potential for photovoltaic (PV) power systems and advocate for the immediate implementation of renewable energy policy in the selected cities. These are expected to bring about significant implications for future renewable energy environmentally friendly investments in Nigeria and globally.