Analysis of Socio-Hydrological Evolution Processes Based on a Modeling Approach in the Upper Reaches of the Han River in China

Xiaoyu Zhao,Dengfeng Liu,Qiang Huang,Xiu Wei,Xianmeng Meng,Mu Lin,Lan Ma

doi:10.3390/w13182458

Abstract

The Han River is the water source of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the “Han River to Wei River Water Diversion Project” in China. In order to ensure that the water quality and quantity are sufficient for the water diversion project, the natural forest protection project, river chief system and other measures have been implemented in the Han River by the government. At the same time, several large reservoirs have been built in the Han River basin and perform the functions of water supply and hydropower generation, which is an important type of clean power. Under the influence of human activities, the coupling interaction between humans and water in the upper reach of the Han River drives the socio-hydrological evolution process. In this study, from the perspective of socio-hydrology, a model of socio-hydrological evolution (SHE) in the Han River in southern Shaanxi was built to simulate the potential evolution path of the socio-hydrological system and determine possible measures for the sustainable governance of the river basin. By adjusting the model parameters, four future scenarios were established: natural continuation, economic development, environmental protection and industrial adjustment scenarios. Taking 2018 as the base year, the evolution of socio-hydrology in the upper reaches of the Han River was predicted under the four scenarios from 2019 to 2045. The simulation results show that: (1) In the entire study area, except for domestic water, the water consumption of other departments show an upward or stable trend. There are differences in water consumption changes in the upper and lower sections, which are related to the different socio-economic conditions. (2) Comparing different development scenarios, the industrial adjustment and environmental protection scenarios are superior to the other scenarios. Natural continuation and economic development scenarios appear to be unfavorable for the sustainability of water resources and the economy. (3) In addition, based on the development scenarios, some policy suggestions are put forward, such as reducing the irrigation water quota, appropriately adjusting the industrial structure and promoting the growth of the urban population and the development of urbanization.

Highlights

The period of the industrial revolution is known as the Anthropocene, during which humans have changed the Earth on an unprecedented scale [1]
This study aims to establish a socio-hydrological evolution (SHE) model to simulate the potential evolution path of the socio-hydrological system in the upper reach of the Han River in China, demonstrate the capability of the system dynamics model in socio-hydrological modeling and determine possible measures for the sustainable governance of the river basin
In both the upper and lower sections, the total water consumption shows an upward trend in all four scenarios

Summary

Introduction

The period of the industrial revolution is known as the Anthropocene, during which humans have changed the Earth on an unprecedented scale [1]. Human beings directly or indirectly change the land water cycle by intercepting rivers, transferring water across river basins and discharging wastewater into rivers [2,3]. The connections between people and water systems are highly complex [5]. Several concepts, such as virtual water [6], the water footprint [7] and water value stream [8], attempt to combine humans and hydrology. Water is the core element of the ecological and environmental system and a strategic resource for the development of human society and the economy. Fresh water supply and water quality are the key factors that affect and constrain human living, food production and economic growth. A growing number of signals, ranging from declining groundwater levels and deteriorating lake water quality to the disappearance of wetlands, indicate that current water system use is unsustainable [9,10], and the decline in water resources has been compounded by urbanization and population growth [11]

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Results

Conclusion