Analysis of social network sites diffusion in Mongolia

Abstract

This paper is proposed to examine the diffusion of social network sites in Mongolia, as well as to understand diffusion pattern at aggregate level. The historical data on the number of monthly subscribers were obtained from two newly launched Mongolian social network sites, Voodoo.mn and Biznetwork.mn. Additionally, the Bass diffusion model was employed as a forecasting technique following nonlinear least square (NLS) approach, and model parameters were estimated using LINGO 9.0 optimization software. It is found that the social network sites diffusion followed traditional S-shaped curve. The results supported for application of Bass model in forecasting diffusion of social network sites in Mongolia. It showed that, the social networking market consisted mainly of imitators. Particularly, social network sites in Mongolia were noted to approximately reach maturity. Keywords: Social network sites, diffusion of innovation, bass model.