Analysis of Social Assistance and Provincial Unexpected Expenditure in Indonesia Before and After Covid-19 (Time Series Analysis: 2019 – 2021)

Abstract

Social assistance spending and unexpected spending are interesting instruments to study concerning the Covid-19 pandemic, as it is well known that this budget allocation is also widely used to finance Covid-19 handling activities. The focus of the objectives of this research is to analyze the variance, growth, and efficiency of social assistance spending and unexpected spending for each provincial government in Indonesia in the period before and after Covid-19, namely 2019 – 2021. This research is a type of quantitative descriptive research. The data source used in this study is secondary data with time series data analysis. Data were obtained by researchers indirectly, namely through intermediary media at the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance (DJPK) Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. The analytical method used in this research is the analysis of variance, growth, and efficiency. The results of the study show that the variance of provincial government social assistance spending in Indonesia in 2019 – 2021 has different values, but on average it experiences flavourable variance. In 2019 - 2021 there will be very extreme growth fluctuations in social assistance spending and unexpected spending, especially in 2020. Several provincial governments are inefficient in spending on social assistance and unexpected spending in 2019 - 2021, this is one of them affected by the conditions of the Covid-19 pandemic.