Analysis of shipping accident patterns among commercial and non-commercial vessels operating in ice-infested waters in Arctic Canada from 1990 to 2022

Abstract

Over the past two decades, the Canadian Arctic has experienced a marked reduction in sea ice extent, coinciding with a significant rise in ship traffic. This study explores the relationship between ship traffic, shipping accidents, accident rates, and diminishing sea ice from 1990 to 2022 during the shipping season. The findings reveal that ship traffic has increased substantially along major Arctic routes, such as the Hudson Strait, Baffin Island, and the Northwest Passage, driven by the consistent decline in sea ice. Despite this rise in traffic, accident rates for commercial vessels, particularly General Cargo and Tanker ships, have significantly decreased, suggesting that current safety measures may be effective. However, the study also uncovered a significant positive correlation between all vessel accidents and sea ice concentration, indicating that certain ice conditions still pose substantial risks to vessels. Additionally, passenger vessel traffic has shown a notable positive correlation with accidents, pointing to emerging risks in the region. Non-commercial vessels, such as fishing vessels, have demonstrated stable accident rates, though they remain understudied. These results underscore the complexity of Arctic maritime operations in the face of climate change and highlight the urgent need for adaptive strategies, continuous monitoring, and targeted policy interventions to ensure the safety and sustainability of future Arctic shipping.