Abstract

BackgroundMissing data are common in tobacco studies. It is well known that from the observed data alone, it is impossible to distinguish between missing mechanisms such as missing at random (MAR) and missing not at random (MNAR). In this paper, we propose a sensitivity analysis method to accommodate different missing mechanisms in cessation outcomes determined by self-report and urine validation results.MethodsWe propose a two-stage imputation procedure, allowing survey and urine data to be missing under different mechanisms. The motivating data were from a tobacco cessation trial examining the effects of the extended vs. standard Quit and Win contests and counseling vs. no counseling under a 2-by-2 factorial design. The primary outcome was 6-month biochemically verified tobacco abstinence.ResultsOur proposed method covers a wide spectrum of missing scenarios, including the widely adopted “missing = smoking” imputation by assuming a perfect smoking-missing correlation (an extreme case of MNAR), the MAR case by assuming a zero smoking-missing correlation, and many more in between. The analysis of the data example shows that the estimated effects of the studied interventions are sensitive to the different missing assumptions on the survey and urine data.ConclusionsSensitivity analysis has played a crucial role in assessing the robustness of the findings in clinical trials with missing data. The proposed method provides an effective tool for analyzing missing data introduced at two different stages of outcome assessment, the self-report and validation time. Our methods are applicable to trials studying biochemically verified abstinence from alcohol and other substances.

Highlights

  • Missing data are common in tobacco studies

  • We extend Hedeker et al.’s method [12] to a two-stage imputation procedure to take into account missing data in either the self-report or the urine verification stages

  • Sensitivity analysis using two-stage imputation As we described earlier, the missing data in the Enhanced Quit & Win study occurred at two different stages: the survey collection stage and the urine verification stage

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Summary

Introduction

Missing data are common in tobacco studies. It is well known that from the observed data alone, it is impossible to distinguish between missing mechanisms such as missing at random (MAR) and missing not at random (MNAR). In smoking cessation studies, missing binary abstinence outcomes (i.e., quit or not quit) are very common. Data are referred to as being missing at random (MAR) if the missing status (yes or no) is not related to the missing value itself, but can be dependent on some other observed variables. Data are referred to as being missing not at random (MNAR) or nonignorable missing if the probability of missing depends on the missing value.

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