Abstract
Seismic refraction and reflection surveys and gravity measurements over Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, can constrain a finite-element model of the geodynamics of the subduction zone. Stress estimates obtained from this model have been combined with rock failure criteria to yield a probability measure of seismic risk that assumes seismic events start from a dilute distribution of Griffith cracks. The results are in agreement with the observed seismicity and lead to the suggestion that the dominant mechanism of this oceanic plate subduction zone is gravitational ridge push and mantle convection.
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