Analysis of seasonal rainfall variability with innovative graphical methods of Konya Closed Basin, Türkiye

Abstract

This study looked into the variability of seasonal rainfall in the semi-arid Konya Closed Basin (KCB), a water-limited region with high exploitation demand for water resources due to agricultural activities. In the study, seasonal precipitation data of eleven stations in the basin for the period 1971–2020 were used and analyzed with four trend methods (Şen-ITA, CWTSD, IPTA, and TPSC). Visual and statistical findings from the analyses showed generally increasing trends in winter and summer precipitation and decreasing trends in spring precipitation in the basin. In autumn precipitation, according to Şen-ITA, there is an increasing trend in seven stations and a decreasing trend in four stations, while according to CWTSD, there is an increasing trend in six stations and a decreasing trend in five stations. Based on the arithmetic mean IPTA graphs, Winter-Spring transitions in all stations occur from a rising trend region to a falling trend region, but Spring-Summer transitions take the reverse direction. In the standard deviation IPTA graphs, similar transitions in the trend regions are predominant. To the mean and standard deviation TPSC graphs, most of the stations generally have similar behavior. Spring-Summer transition arrows are dominant in Zone III, while Summer-Autumn and Autumn-Winter transitions are dominant in Zone I. Although Winter-Spring transitions are variable, they are more intense in Zone I and III. CWTSD and Şen-ITA methods are also consistent with the results obtained from IPTA graphs, both visually and numerically.