Abstract
The article discusses the risk assessment methods of financial performance of an enterprise. The essence of the main risks typical in enterprises of agro-industrial complex is described, sources of risk and factors affecting the financial performance are identified. A logical and probabilistic model of the risk of financial performance of an enterprise is suggested; factors and events that initiate the loss of profit, a decrease in sales revenues and an increase in the costs of enterprises in the agro-industrial complex are revealed. A method for calculating the significant values of risk probability and security areas for the formation of the financial performance of an enterprise is presented. An algorithm for calculating the dependencies was developed and it makes it possible to assess the critical values of indicators of financial and economic activity of an enterprise and the level of risk and threats to financial performance. The expediency of use of the authors’ algorithm in order to optimize the amount and structure of costs and capital. It was stated that the suggested approach allows to monitor continuously the magnitude of risk and threats, to evaluate the effectiveness of measures which reduce the risk of having undesirable financial performance in an enterprise.
Highlights
Financial and economic activities of enterprises are based on production processes, within which the transformation of resources into final products, rendered services or performed works takes place
For the period when the final goods are obtained, the conditions for financial and economic activity may significantly change in comparison with the initial period of the production process
The instability of the conditions for financial and economic activity of enterprises in the agro-industrial complex, presence of nonlinearity in development of an enterprise reduces the accuracy of the forecast and the value of information obtained from the analysis of previously observed trends
Summary
Financial and economic activities of enterprises are based on production processes, within which the transformation of resources into final products, rendered services or performed works takes place. The incompleteness of information on the achievement of the planned financial performance, the uncertainty of market conditions, and, the restricted opportunity of forecasting the planned performance of the organization's activity and their subsequent achievement, are connected with the factors of entrepreneurial risk and the likelihood of the appearance and manifestation of negative events. The assessment of the information about the external and internal environment of an enterprise is described in the KRISIS-analysis methodology, which makes it possible to determine the degree of its influence on business processes of an economic entity in crisis conditions for making effective decisions in management and strategic planning [5]. The instability of the conditions for financial and economic activity of enterprises in the agro-industrial complex, presence of nonlinearity in development of an enterprise reduces the accuracy of the forecast and the value of information obtained from the analysis of previously observed trends. In the event that the risk criteria are not met, the decisions are required to neutralize threats
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