Analysis of Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) Using Multi Input Transfer Function

Abstract

Residential property or home is one of the basic human needs as a shelter, to be able to continue to live. As the population in Indonesia increases, express the need for residential property will also increase. The movement of residential property prices in Indonesia can be observed from the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) issued by Bank Indonesia. Residential property prices can be influenced by several factors. For example in economic, the movement of RPPI can be influenced by several factors such as inflation, Composite Stock Price Index (RPPI) and loan interest rates. Forecasting the RPPI can be done with times series modeling. Modeling RPPI using three influencing variables requires a multivariate time series model. The multi-input transfer function model is a multivariate model that can be used in modeling RPPI. In the multi-input transfer function model there is an output series (y t ) which is the RPPI which is estimated to be influenced by several input series (x jt ), which are inflation, IHSG and loan interest rates. Based on the model obtained in this study, it can be seen that the prediction of RPPI at the t-time is influenced by the amount of inflation in the previous two months until previous five months, influence by loan interest rates without delay so that it is influenced by the t-time until previous three months, influenced by the IHSG at t-time until previous four months, and also influenced by itself at one month before to four months before.