Abstract
Abstract. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is a major horticultural crop of India. In the present study an effort has been made to evaluate the forecast (area, production and productivity) of potato being carried out under FASAL/CHAMAN project of DAC&FW. For this purpose, remote sensing-based forecasts were analysed for the period of 6 years (2012–13 to 2017–18). The district level area and production estimates were carried out in 5 major potato growing states of India i.e. Bihar, Gujarat, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. The area estimation has been carried out using multi-spectral satellite data through supervised/ unsupervised image classification techniques. IRS P6-LISS III (, Sentinel- 2A, and LANDSAT-8 OLI data were used for acreage estimation during October to March every year. District level potato crop yield has been estimated using two different procedures - i) Agro-meteorological stepwise regression models, and ii) Remote sensing index (VCI) based empirical models. The estimates of area, production and productivity were compared with the Government (DES) estimates. Good correlation (r) between the forecasted and DES estimates was observed in case of area (0.37, 0.81, 0.93, 0.68 and 0.73) and production (0.59, 0.72, 0.94, 0.30 and 0.09) for Bihar, Gujarat, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal states, respectively. Similarly, low RMSE (%) between the forecasted and DES estimates was observed in case of area (6.90, 14.6, 16.8, 5.4 and 3.8) and but higher RMSE (%), in case of production (18.6, 21.3, 21.8, 9.8 and 20.9) for Bihar, Gujarat, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal states, respectively. Year wise correlation and RMSE% reveals that the accuracy of remote sensing-based area and production has increased significantly over the last few years may be due to improvement in methodology and availability of higher resolution data along with experience gained over the crop.
Highlights
Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) plays a vital role in food and nutritional security of India
Considering the importance of potato crop for pre-harvest estimation of potato crop using satellite data was carried out under FASAL (Forecasting Agricultural output using Space, Agro-meteorology and Land based observations) project of Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare (Ray et al, 2016a, Ray & Neetu, 2017), using the procedures developed by Space Applications Centre, ISRO (Parihar and Oza, 2017)
The objective of this study is to review the procedures adopted for potato estimation and evaluate the estimates obtained vis-à-vis government estimates
Summary
Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) plays a vital role in food and nutritional security of India. Its contribution to the national economy is manifold. Potato production in the country has increased significantly over the last few years. Its national production and subsequent demand have raised endlessly over the years. Considering the importance of potato crop for pre-harvest estimation of potato crop using satellite data was carried out under FASAL (Forecasting Agricultural output using Space, Agro-meteorology and Land based observations) project of Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare (Ray et al, 2016a, Ray & Neetu, 2017), using the procedures developed by Space Applications Centre, ISRO (Parihar and Oza, 2017). After the launching of the CHAMAN (Coordinated Horticulture Assessment and Management using geinformatics), project by the Ministry, the potato estimation is being carried under this project (Ray et al, 2016b, 2018)
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