Abstract
Extreme precipitation trends and events are fundamental for the definition of the region’s climate and allow the subsequent analysis of the risk for the territory and the possible countermeasures. This study takes into account the Marche Region (Central Italy) with 128 rain gauges from 1921 to 2017. Initially, in order to obtain a rainfall overview, the dominant trend of the period 1921–2017 was evaluated. Initially, in order to obtain a rainfall overview, the dominant trend of the period 1921–2017 was evaluated. In addition, to obtain a comparable analysis, the average precipitations grouped in climatological standard normals were analyzed. Finally, the main purpose of the research was achieved by analyzing extreme events in the middle Adriatic side. In addition, forecasts of extreme precipitation events, with a return period of 100 years, were made using the theory of “generalized extreme value” (GEV). The innovation of this research is represented by the use of geostatistics to spatialize the variables investigated, through a clear and immediate graphic representation performed through GIS software. This study is a necessary starting point for the study of climate dynamics in the region, and it is also a useful tool for land use planning.
Highlights
IntroductionAim of the Study and State of the Art. Climate change is currently generating more and more intense and frequent extreme rainfall
From the 36 significant rain gauges, 32 out of them show a downward trend, while for rainy days there is not a clear tendency because increasing trend at 16 rain gauges and decreasing trend at 15 gauges are obtained in the annual amount of rainy days in the period
3c,d).There (Figure 3 c, d).There is a strong downward trend in rainfall for the Marche Region, there are some countertrend areas located in the central–southern part of the Region (Macerata and part of is asome strong downward trend in rainfall for the Marche Region, there are some countertrend are countertrend areas located in the central–southern part of the Region (Macerata and part of the Sibillini Mountains)
Summary
Aim of the Study and State of the Art. Climate change is currently generating more and more intense and frequent extreme rainfall. The causes that generate climate change are under investigation and are mainly attributable to pollutant emissions [1], so much so that many studies evaluate their reduction [2]. In particular the greenhouse gases have increased from 1970 to 2010 of 0.55 gigatons per year, with a growth in the last period 2000–2010 of 1 gigaton per year despite the increasing countermeasures adopted by nations [3]. CO2 emissions derive mainly from fossil fuel combustion (78%) and the increase in the period 2000–2010 is due to diverse anthropogenic causes as energy supply (47%), industry (30%), transport (11%), and buildings (3%) [3]. The relationship between greenhouse gases and extreme events has been widely demonstrated on several occasions by the international scientific community [4]
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