Abstract
Abstract. Global climate change may result in severe regional consequences affecting agricultural production potential. One of the essential climatic impacts is associated with drought conditions. Therefore, projected future changes of several drought indices are analyzed for the future period 2071–2100 (compared to 1961–1990, as a reference period) using three different global emission scenarios (A2, A1B, and B2). The monthly time series of the indices have been calculated from the simulation outputs of the regional climate model PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) for Central/Eastern Europe with 25 km horizontal resolution accomplished by the Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University. According to the results significant drying is projected in the region, especially in summer.
Highlights
TtihoenDdaetpaasrettms eonftPoRfEMCIeStemEorooadleorlgtehyx, pESeoryitmvsoetsnetLsmoarcacnodmUplnisivheerdsibtyy (Bartholy et al, 2009) are useDd. ySinmaulmatioicnssfor the periods1961–1990, and 2071–2100 are analyzed
The gional mean climate, and in the frequency and intensity changes of different climatological extremes associlast get ptherreioeddiencaoduerssotufdtyhedcueenGttouertyhoehsarocsbibeuesentntcislfieimlceactteedchaasntghee tarsigated with both temperature and precipitation (IPCC, 2007). nal (Pieczka et al, 2011I)ncsomtrpuamredetnottaheticolinmate variability
FinaGlly,ethoesmcaiienncotinfcilcusions are summarised in the Mlasot sdecetilonD. evelopment sults of 11 global climate models (GCMs) and showed that a statistically significant increase of drought is 2 Regional climate model PRECIS
Summary
TtihoenDdaetpaasrettms eonftPoRfEMCIeStemEorooadleorlgtehyx, pESeoryitmvsoetsnetLsmoarcacnodmUplnisivheerdsibtyy (Bartholy et al, 2009) are useDd. ySinmaulmatioicnssfor the periods. First, the PRMECeISthmooddsel iasnindtroduced, which provides the temperature Danad tpareScipyistatteiomn dsata used to calculate the monthly time series of drought indices for the. This climatological hazard must be addressed and investi- Carpathian Basin. M sults of 11 global climate models (GCMs) and showed that a statistically significant increase (by 5–45 %) of drought is 2 Regional climate model PRECIS projected for land area. PRECIS is able to sufficiently reconstruct the climate of the reference period in the Carpathian Basin (Bartholy et al, 2009; Pieczka et al, 2011). The PRECIS model can be used to estimate future climatic change of the Carpathian Basin. In case of the A1B scenario CO2 concentration level by 2100 is estimated to increase to 717 ppm (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000)
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