Analysis of prevention measures in Shenzhen based on SIQR model during the novel coronavirus pneumonia

Abstract

The epidemic situation in the novel coronavirus input areas represented by Shenzhen has quickly stabilized under various prevention and control measures, since the novel coronavirus outbreak in China. In this paper, we use the SIQR (susceptible infection quarantined recovered) model of transmission dynamics to simulate the real epidemic development of Shenzhen, and score the strength of various control measures, simulate the epidemic development under different measures scores. Our results show that if the lockdown of Wuhan had been delayed for 15 days, the number of people infected in Shenzhen would increase by 69.5 times. The scores of input population control, personal epidemic prevention measures, and urban internal population flow control are 80, 92 and 84 points, respectively. Compared with other regions of the world, the all-round and vigorous epidemic prevention in Shenzhen has effectively prevented the outbreak of the epidemic in the local area. When the population flow control was relaxed to 40 points, if the personal epidemic prevention was 60 points, the number of infected people would increase to around 9 hundred, but if the personal epidemic prevention was 20 points, the number of infected people would increase to more than 4 million. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain a high level of personal protection when the population flow control is relaxed.