Abstract

This paper was based on the Poyang lake Basin’s 55a rainfall data (1959 ~2014). First, the recursive linear interpolation method was used to complete the daily precipitation observation data of 55a to establish the Poyang lake basin’s data. Then the linear regression method was used to study the change trend of Poyang lake basin: the number of days of rainfall, days of light rain, days of heavy rain, days of rainstorm and days of continuous no rainfall. The results suggest that: 1) In the past 55a, there is no apparently change trend in precipitation between the annual and flood season. The precipitation has been with cyclical fluctuations. 2) The monthly variation trends in the water level of stations in Poyang lake basin are basically in accordance with the precipitation’s trends. 3) The precipitation has similar characteristics in spatial distribution between the annual and flood season, most concentrates in Raohe basin and XinJiang basin. 4) The total number of rainy days and light rain days shows a decreasing trend, but the heavy rain days and rainstorm days increase significantly on versus. The precipitation intensity has enhanced, also the days of continuous no rainfall show an increasing trend. That is the drought flood risk increases.

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