Analysis of Precipitation and Drought in the Main Southeastern Iberian River Headwaters (1952–2021)

Abstract

This study evaluated the long-term changes in precipitation patterns and drought conditions in one of the key recharge areas of the hydrological system of southern and southeastern Spain, namely, the Sierra de Cazorla y Segura, which contains the headwater sectors of the catchment basins of two important rivers, namely, the Guadalquivir and the Segura. The research covered a period of 70 years (1952–2021) and undertook an exhaustive analysis of data from 348 pluviometric stations. The most relevant results are as follows: (1) most areas experienced a decrease in the precipitation volume and number of rainy days during the study period; (2) summer and winter showed the most significant decreases; (3) weak and moderate precipitation (<40 mm/d) showed significant decreases in both volume and frequency, while heavy precipitation (≥40 mm/d) showed the opposite behavior; (4) the durations of dry periods increased, while the durations of wet periods decreased in most areas; and (5) the SPEI showed an increase under drought conditions. This research underscores the need for water resource management and resilience strategies with interdisciplinary relevance in the face of changing hydrological patterns.