Analysis of pre-crash scenarios and contributing factors for autonomous vehicle crashes at intersections

Abstract

Intersections are high-risk locations for autonomous vehicles (AVs). Crash causation analysis based on pre-crash scenarios can provide new insight into these crashes that can lead to effective countermeasures, but there are significant differences in pre-crash scenarios between autonomous and conventional vehicles, and inadequate AV data has put limits on research. The association rule method, however, can yield useful results despite these limits. This study therefore aims to use the method with pre-crash scenarios to understand the characteristics and contributing factors of AV crashes at intersections from the latest 5-year AV crash data. Analysis of 197 AV crashes at intersections revealed 30 types of pre-crash scenarios. The rear-end crash (58.88%) and lane change crash (16.24%) were the most frequently occurring scenarios for AVs. The proportion of AVs being rear-ended by conventional vehicles was 58.38%. The main contributing factors of these two most common AV scenarios were identified by association rules and crash causes were analyzed from the perspective of AV decision-making. The main factors contributing to the AV rear-end scenario were location outside the intersection in the intersection-related area, traffic signal control, autonomous engaged mode, mixed-use or public land, and weekdays, while those for lane change scenarios were on-street parking and the time of 8:00 a.m. Important causes of rear-end crashes attributable to the AV were inadequate stop and deceleration decisions by the AV’s automated driving system (ADS) and insufficient collision avoidance decisions in lane change crashes. Identification of the pre-crash characteristics and contributing factors provide new insight into AV crash causation and can be used in the determination of the AV’s operational design domain and the development and optimization of the AV’s ADS at intersections. These findings can also play a role in guiding traffic safety agencies to discover AV hotspots and propose AV management regulations.