Analysis of Power Planning Deviation Influence on the Non-fossil Energy Development Goal

Abstract

Due to the international circumstances changes and domestic economic restructuring, the policies and planning of energy development have been adjusting in recent years, especially in energy power industry. Under these influences, the Chinese energy development goal “non-fossil energy accounts for 15% of the primary energy consumption” which planned to be realized in 2020 becomes uncertain. To ensure the goal can be achieved, a new energy power planning scheme is provided. Based on this planning scheme, the sensitivity analysis method and the maximum deviation method are proposed to quantify the influence of planning deviation on the target percentage. At the same time, the energy replacement is provided to fill the deviation. Research results shows that the main influence factors of target percentage is the hydro and nuclear power develop scale and their output channel construction. If the hydro and nuclear power capacity can’t reach their target scale, wind and solar power capacity can fill the vacancy instead. But if the vacancy of hydropower exceeds 58GW, or vacancy of nuclear power exceeds 27GW, the “15% goal” would be very difficult to achieve. Accelerating the construction of the hydropower output transmission lines helps to guarantee the "15% goal".