Analysis of potential distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda in western China

Abstract

• Over 60% of the areas in western China are suitable distribution areas of Spodoptera frugiperda . • More than 20% of the areas in western China are high suitable distribution area for Spodoptera frugiperda. • Greenhouses may raise the risk of Spodoptera frugiperda infestations in western China. Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), a newly invaded pest that breaks out fast and severely, causes a serious threat to the national security of food production in China. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potentially suitable distribution area of S. frugiperda in western China. The potential distribution of S. frugiperda was predicted using meteorological factors from the correlation analysis. According to the result, a satisfactory AUC value in the MaxEnt model indicates that the prediction model has good accuracy, which is sufficient for predicting the suitable distribution areas of S. frugiperda in western China. The prediction results show that the potential distribution risk of S. frugiperda is high in western Gansu, eastern Qinghai, Shaanxi, most regions of Ningxia, and part regions of Tibetan, and the most suitable areas for S. frugiperda in Xinjiang are Hami, Ili, Urumqi, Hotan and Aksu, and more than 60% of western China are suitable distribution areas for S. frugiperda . Western China is one of the main wheat and corn producing areas in China. Clarifying the potential geographical distribution of S. frugiperda in western China is essential for early warning as well as prevention and control.