Analysis of Policies Based on the Multi-Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity, in Terms of the Number of Deaths in the Coronavirus Epidemic.

Xianghui Wang,Yang Zhang,Yan Du,Chengliang Wu,Chang Chen

doi:10.3390/healthcare9020116

Abstract

It has been a year since the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic 2019 (COVID-19). In the face of the global epidemic, governments in all countries have taken different prevention measures, such as social isolation, mandatory health protection, and the closure of schools and workplaces. The situation of the epidemic has clearly varied from country to country. In this context, research on the impact of policies for the control of the spread of the global epidemic is of great significance. In this paper, we examined data from a sample of 212 countries between 31 December 2019, and 21 May 2020, using multi-fuzzy regression discontinuity. We found that developed countries had relatively low sensitivity to the policy stringency index; however, policy control measures had a significant effect on epidemic control. In addition, the trend analysis showed that the corresponding management and control came into play only after the policy stringency index reached 50 or the policy management reached level II, and the robustness was optimal at this time. Therefore, the governments in all countries should realize that epidemic prevention and control are of great importance. They can strengthen policy stringency to control the spread of the epidemic, considering their national conditions in terms of the economy and health system.

Highlights

IntroductionIn December 2019, the coronavirus epidemic broke out in the South China Seafood
This study provides a new perspective for policy assessment by having conducted an accurate and generalized data analysis based on 18,862 samples with a focus on the influences of policy control on the number of deaths from COVID-19
The results showed that border blockades and extensive testing had nothing to do with the COVID-19 death rate per million people, but they were significantly conducive to the recovery of the infected, which showed that the government’s prevention and control measures and the speed of the policy had an important impact on the treatment of the infected [27]

Summary

Introduction

In December 2019, the coronavirus epidemic broke out in the South China Seafood. It has spread to more than 200 countries, and more than 30 million people have been infected, which has attracted the attention of academic circles. The increase in infected people, the sharp decline in income, the increase in unemployment, and the stagnation of economic development have worried people all over the world [1]. The number of infected people has accumulated to 7.24 million as of 26 September 2020, in the United States, the country with the largest number of infections. According to a survey of the American people, nearly half of the people said that they would prioritize reducing the risk of infection and hope to postpone the reopening of non-essential businesses, while the other group (13%), mostly non-partisans with higher income, strongly urged the resumption of work and production [3]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion