Analysis of PLN's Electrical Energy Demand in the Area of Batam-Indonesia Using the Linear Regression Method

Abstract

The economic growth in all sectors becomes a consequence in the increasing of the need for electrical energy, especially in the city of Batam. It urges the electrical energy supplier to make the planning or forecasting for electric power system operations in Batam. The decisive factor in making the electric power system operation planning is the prediction of the electricity demand that must be provided. This study aims to predict the need for electrical energy in the Batam city in 2016 to 2021 based on historical data, it is expected to be considered in the planning of electric power system operatio. The method used is Linear Regression with the simulation of minitab version 18, then the result of prediction in the increasing of electricity subscriber on industrial load is 104 customer (the average of growth per year is 4,33%) and for the non-industrial load is equal to 81,632 customers (the average of annual growth is 4.11%), power connected to the industrial loads is 219,769 MVA (the average of annual growth is 8.22%) and for the non-industrial loads is 586,083 MVA (the average growth per year is 7.72%), the electrical energy sold at industrial loads is 289.481 GWh (the average annual growth is 6.95%) and for the non-industrial loads is 441,118 GWh (the average of annual growth is 7,72%), and the sales revenue on industrial expenses amounted to 414,934 Million Rupiah (the average of annual growth is 7.99%) and for the nonindustrial expenses amounted to 697,428 Million Rupiah (the average of annual growth is 5.30%).