Analysis of Permeability Growth Mode of Regional Distributed Power Supply Based on Improved Bass Model

Abstract

As an important field of realizing the "double carbon" goal, low carbon development of electric power industry plays a vital role in realizing the "double carbon" goal of our country. Building urban green electric power system mainly composed of distributed photovoltaic and wind power is an important way to realize low carbon development of electric power industry. In order to accurately grasp the development trend of regional distributed power supply, this paper introduces the concept of distributed power supply permeability, which is defined as the ratio of annual distributed power generation and regional annual power consumption. Firstly, the installed capacity growth model of regional distributed power supply was constructed based on the improved Bass model, and then the annual power generation of distributed power supply was obtained by combining the capacity coefficients of different types of distributed power supply. Secondly, grey theory is used to forecast regional annual electricity consumption. Finally, based on the permeability definition of distributed power supply, the permeability growth curve of distributed power supply in distribution network is drawn and the growth mode is analyzed.