Abstract
Smallholder farmers in East and West Hararghe zones, Ethiopia frequently face problems of climate extremes. Knowledge of past and projected climate change and variability at local and regional scales can help develop adaptation measures. A study was therefore conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of rainfall and temperature in the past (1988–2017) and projected periods of 2030 and 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) at selected stations in East and West Hararghe zones, Ethiopia. To detect the trends and magnitude of change Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed, respectively. The result of the study indicated that for the last three decades annual and seasonal and monthly rainfall showed high variability but the changes are not statistically significant. On the other hand, the minimum temperature of the ‘Belg’ season showed a significant (p < 0.05) increment. The mean annual minimum temperature is projected to increase by 0.34 °C and 2.52 °C for 2030, and 0.41 °C and 4.15 °C for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Additionally, the mean maximum temperature is projected to change by −0.02 °C and 1.14 °C for 2030, and 0.54 °C and 1.87 °C for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Annual rainfall amount is also projected to increase by 2.5% and 29% for 2030, and 12% and 32% for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Hence, it is concluded that there was an increasing trend in the Belg season minimum temperature. A significant increasing trend in rainfall and temperature are projected compared to the baseline period for most of the districts studied. This implies a need to design climate-smart crop and livestock production strategies, as well as an early warning system to counter the drastic effects of climate change and variability on agricultural production and farmers’ livelihood in the region.
Highlights
Anthropogenic warming has reached approximately 1 ◦ C above the pre-industrial level, and if the current rate continues, it is likely to reach 1.5 ◦ C between 2030 and 2052 [1].In Africa, precipitation and temperature have shown declining and increasing trends, respectively [2]
In Ethiopia, mean annual temperature has risen by 1.3 ◦ C between 1960 and 2006 and is projected to increase up to 1.8 ◦ C by 2050s and 3.7 ◦ C by the end of the century, under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5)
The results of the study indicated that the mean annual minimum temperature of Belg season was significantly increased in the last 30 years
Summary
Anthropogenic warming has reached approximately 1 ◦ C above the pre-industrial level, and if the current rate continues, it is likely to reach 1.5 ◦ C between 2030 and 2052 [1]. A high level of spatial-temporal variability and uncertainty in precipitation was observed and projected in the future [3,4]. A study by [19] stated that annual rainfall showed high variability and minimum and maximum temperatures an increasing trend in Mieso area, eastern Ethiopia between 1974–2009. A study by [21] in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia reported a mean annual rainfall change of −40% to +10% and a temperature increase by. The research studies conducted so far in various regions of the country, including the eastern part, focused on past climate change and variability. This study, analyzed past and projected trends of rainfall and temperature parameters in Eastern and Western Hararghe zones, Ethiopia
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
