Analysis of ODMSP-compliant near-circular GPS disposal orbits and resulting long-term collision risk

Abstract

The U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices (ODMSP) released in December 2019 include several disposal options that are applicable to GPS satellites. One option is to leave a satellite on a near-circular disposal orbit with limited long-term eccentricity growth. Many currently operational GPS satellites are planned to move to near-circular disposal orbits above the GPS operational constellation and below the BeiDou Satellite System (BDS). The conditions in the ODMSP specify that GPS disposal orbits avoid crossing the semi-synchronous zone (altitude range 20,182 +/- 300 km, occupied by GPS) or the BDS operational altitude for 100 years. An analysis was performed to determine ways to achieve ODMSP-compliance of near-circular GPS disposal orbits and limit associated collision risk. Disposal orbit propagations over 100 years were used to determine the available initial semi-major axis (SMA) range for compliant disposal orbits. Next, the GPS constellation and satellite disposals were simulated over a 200-year time frame. The disposal orbits were propagated and the collision probability between disposed satellites was then evaluated. Results show an available initial SMA range of 363 km for an initial eccentricity of 0.0003 and a range of only 3 km for an initial eccentricity of 0.001, which cover worst-case eccentricity growth scenarios. Results also show that a disposal strategy with initial eccentricity of 0.0003 and initial SMA uniformly spread over 363 km has the lowest collision probability for future disposed GPS satellites.