Analysis of Numerical Model Result To Estimate Tsunami Damage Based On Inundation Data

Abstract

Precomputed tsunami inundation data could be processed and analyzed to give predictive information on the impact of tsunami waves in the incident of potential tsunami earthquake. The objective of this study is the tsunami damage estimation based on the analysis of numerical model results, specifically inundation values in combination with the tsunami fragility curve. The inundation data used is based on the numerical model results in Banda Aceh obtained by the model TsunAWI for the tsunami event following the Mw9.1 earthquake on 26 December 2004. As initial preparation, the data is processed and analyzed first by using Geographic Information System (GIS) to extract the inundation depth data. After the inundation depth data is obtained, we perform the damage probability calculation by using fragility function based on the statistical analysis of the observed damages. From that result, it is possible to estimate the damage probability which in the investigated area turns out to be 50 % when inundation depths exceed 3 m. Moreover, the fragility curve shows 100 % of damage estimation when the inundation depth reaches 8.5 m. This preliminary research paper aims to expand the Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS) with modules that estimate damage in coastal areas by considering the fragility curve.