Analysis of nonperforming loans: case of Albania

Abstract

The presence of a high level of nonperforming loans has been a growing concern in the world. This problem has been present in Albania, as well, which is one of the countries with the highest level of nonperforming loans in the region. Nonperforming loans hamper economic growth and constrain the monetary policy transmission mechanism.This paper examines the role of nonperforming loans in Albania by evaluating its level throughout the years and analyzing the ways in which these trends have shaped the credit market developments in Albania in terms of lending by economic sector and geographical position. This study strives to examine nonperforming loans as a result of other macroeconomic factors: GDP, remittances and inflation. The methodology involves time series analysis, which is used to identify the possible association between non-performing loans and macroeconomic variables. Multiple regression is used as a model to identify any relationship among them. The period covered is from 2014 to 2020, and it uses quarterly data. The paper uses secondary data, obtained from the Bank of Albania, United Nations database, UNECE, INSTAT, World Bank. The results show that nonperforming loans and these variables are correlated in the long-run.