Abstract
Fertility and marriage are inextricably linked in sub-Saharan Africa, but recent changes, such as the rise in non-marital fertility, signals a weakening link, and the second demographic transition offers some explanations. Non-marital fertility comes with disadvantages, but it has not been adequately studied in Nigeria. Hence, this study examined the levels, patterns, and correlates of non-marital fertility, and offers implications for interventions and future research. Using data from the Nigeria Demographic and Survey 2008–2018, with a pooled weighted sample size of 11,925 unmarried women, percentage distribution was employed and a two-part model for count data was fitted, with the result showing that the level of non-marital fertility is 29%, and it is common among younger, rural dwelling, and uneducated unmarried women. The correlates of non-marital fertility include age, region of residence, level of education, religion, household wealth index, relationship status, ethnicity, work status, and age at sexual debut. Interventions to arrest rise of non-martial fertility due to its obvious disadvantages, should strengthen sexual and reproductive health programs for unmarried rural-dwelling young women, and revitalize welfare efforts for children born outside wedlock, for poor women, while future research should explore an in-depth understanding of non-marital births.
Highlights
It was found that non-marital fertility is low in Nigeria compared to other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, where evidence is available, but the level has been experiencing a steady rise in the last decade, from 23.6% in 2008 to 27.1% in 2013, and, to 42.1% in 2018
The recent study on non-marital fertility in Ghana found that non-marital fertility is the most common amongst older unmarried women, women with no education, working class unmarried women, as well as women who made their sexual debut at younger than 20 years of age, and this represents some of the patterns that play out in Nigeria; similar evidence has been reported in a study that examined non-marital fertility in South Africa, apart from a few differences (Nyarko and Potter 2021)
Non-marital fertility has been identified to come with several consequences for both the mother and the children born out of wedlock, but scant evidence exists on the topic in the context of sub-Saharan Africa, and in the case of Nigeria, no known study can be identified after an extensive literature search
Summary
This transition in fertility patterns is impacted by numerous factors, but a notable one is the reduction in the proportion of married people, since fertility and marriage have always been inextricably linked, especially in sub-Saharan. Some of the factors that have contributed to marriage losing its grip on fertility include the rising age at first marriage, reduction in the proportion of the married population, early sexual debut, contraception revolution, as well as increasing women empowerment and emancipation, resulting in a shift of births to single women (Heuveline et al 2003; Lesthaeghe 2010)
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