Analysis of Natech risk induced by lightning strikes in floating roof tanks based on the Bayesian network model

Abstract

AbstractBased on the Bayesian network, a risk assessment model of Natech was established to assess the risks associated with lightning. Based on existing research results and expert analyses, a causal relationship between different parameters was constructed, and the conditional probability values of nodes were determined. This Natech risk assessment model was used to predict and analyze the fire explosion of inner floating roof tanks caused by lightning. The results showed that Natech risk assessment models by the Bayesian network could clearly express the direct causality of risk factors and perform both predictive and diagnostic analyses.