Analysis of multi-mitigation scenarios on maritime disruptions

Abstract

This paper assesses four major mitigation strategies (inventory and sourcing mitigation, contingency rerouting, recovery planning and business continuity planning) to determine their suitability for managing potential disruptions in the wheat supply chain. In the wheat supply chain, maritime operations have an essential role due to the critical linkages that connect the global transport of this high density and complex freight task. Maritime logistical risks are wide-ranging and include the uncertainty in vessel arrivals, inventory levels of grain at the port, variety of arriving wheat consignments, and the impact of a low rail car unloading rate and performance of maritime logistic services. These significant factors could subsequently create severe disruptive events in the supply chain process of wheat trading. A Markovian-based methodology is the prime means used to evaluate the mitigation strategies in the context of wheat transport from Australia to Indonesia. As a result, the four-stage continuous time period of the Markov chain application enables the measurement and prediction of supply chain costs and time functions in relation to potential disruptive events. This may assist entities along the wheat supply chain to be better prepared both when attempting to manage maritime disruptions and re-evaluating their supply chain operation planning.