Analysis of maternal mortality trend and age-period-cohort model in China from 1992 to 2017

Abstract

Objective: To understand the trend of maternal mortality in China from 1992 to 2017, and to evaluate the effects of age, period and cohort of maternal mortality by using the age-period-cohort (APC) model. Methods: The data of maternal mortality in China from 1992 to 2017 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease project. The maternal mortality rate was adopted to describe the trend of death. The APC model and the estimable function algorithm were used to evaluate the impact of age, period and birth cohort factors on maternal mortality risk in China. Results: From1992 to 2017, the maternal mortality rate in China fluctuated slightly and then continued to decline and finally increased slightly. During this period, the net drift was -10.00% per year (95%CI:-10.92% to -9.08% per year), and all the local drifts were lower than zero in all age groups of 10-54 years old (P<0.05). The results of the APC model analysis showed that the maternal mortality risk of women in their life stage showed a trend of rapid decrease, then a slow climb and finally a rapid increase. The period relative risk and cohort relative risk of maternal mortality both showed a monotonous decreasing trend. Conclusion: From 1992 to 2017, the maternal mortality rate in China generally shows a downward trend, and the risk of maternal mortality has significant age, period and cohort effects.