Analysis of Malaysia electricity demand and generation by 2040

Abstract

Malaysia as an emerging country, increasing population, gross domestic product (GDP) growth and enhanced access to electricity lead to an expanding of demand. The crucial parameters to determine future energy demand and generation projections are GDP, population growth rates and weather implications due to climate change. The study aims to forecast the future trends based on the historical values and also to project the future electricity demand and generation. The electricity demand and generation growth evaluated based on 2 main elements which are population growth and weather parameters (maximum temperature and rainfall). The future trends are forecasted based on the historical values of population and weather parameters. There is 152.9% of population growth in 32 years. The population will keep on developing yet with the lower rate. The GDP trend and the population growth mirrors the pattern of emissions. The findings from Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) analysis shows that the rainfall distribution will diminish while the temperature will expand that depict the climate change impact as time passes by. In 2020, the most extreme temperature recorded is 31.7 °C while in 2040, the estimated greatest temperature is 32.3 °C. There will be a 0.6 °C increase in temperature in 20 years. The demand in 2040 will be expanded 50.3% more than demand in 2020. The estimated electricity demand per capita will continue expanding because of the augmentation of the populace and the significance of electricity in daily activities. The pattern shows that electricity demand and generation in Malaysia will be expanding massively year by year.