Analysis of Long-Term Temperature Trend in Illinois and its Implication on the Cropping System

Abstract

With surging population and changing global climate, the prospect of ensuring global food security has become ever challenging. Crop yield is driven by various environmental and management factors. For exaple, crop yield is related to the temperature during the growth stages of the plants, and therefore, the yield is going to be affected by any changes in temperature pattern. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the salient features of the temperature in the recent past, which marks the advent of the anthropogenic climate change and in the upcoming future as well. This study analyzes the trend in various parameters of temperature in Illinois at an annual and seasonal scale. It also analyzes the temperature at a temporal scale relevant to the crop yield. It was observed that the effects of climate change on Illinois temperature is very low and sparsely distributed. Any change observed heretofore point towards a favorable ambient condition for the cropping systems. The climate change is expected to affect both natural and man-man systems in the future. Agricultural practices combine significant components of both of these systems. For rain-fed agricultural systems, whose dependence outweighs towards the natural determinants, climate change adds another layer of uncertainty that hinders the planning and management process.