Analysis of lifetime death probability for major causes of death among residents in China

Ping Yuan,Matthew Borg,Kuicheng Zheng,Jianjun Xiang,Xiane Peng,Xiuquan Lin,Tiehui Chen

doi:10.1186/s12889-020-09201-7

Abstract

BackgroundCumulative mortality rate and cumulative mortality risk are two commonly used indicators to measure the impact and severity of diseases. However, they are calculated during a defined life span and assume the subject does not die from other causes. This study aims to use a new indicator, lifetime death probability (LDP), to estimate the lifetime death probabilities for the top five leading causes of death in China and explore the regional differences and trends over time.MethodsLDPs were calculated using a probability additive formula and abridged life tables.ResultsIn 2014, LDPs for heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, malignancy, respiratory disease, and injury and poisoning were 24.4, 23.7, 19.2, 15.5, and 5.3%, respectively. The LDPs for heart disease and malignancy increased by 7.3 and 0.5%, respectively, compared to those from 2004 to 2005. In contrast, the LDPs for cerebrovascular and respiratory disease decreased by 1.0 and 3.9%, respectively, compared to those in 2004–2005. Across the eastern, central and western regions, malignancy had the highest LDP in the eastern region, cerebrovascular and heart diseases in the central region, and respiratory diseases, and injury and poisoning in the western region.ConclusionsLDP is an effective indicator for comparing health outcomes and can be applied for future disease surveillance. Heart disease and malignancy were the two most common causes of death in China, but with regional differences. There is a need to implement targeted measures to prevent chronic diseases in different regions.

Highlights

Cumulative mortality rate and cumulative mortality risk are two commonly used indicators to measure the impact and severity of diseases
In 2014, the total mortality count in the monitoring areas increased to 1,643,377, with males and females accounting for 58.7% (965,261) and 41.3% (678, 116) of deaths, respectively
Calculation of the mortality rate is based on observed population without the disease as “independent censoring”, that is, a purely hypothetical population where individuals could not die without the disease

Summary

Introduction

Cumulative mortality rate and cumulative mortality risk are two commonly used indicators to measure the impact and severity of diseases They are calculated during a defined life span and assume the subject does not die from other causes. Cumulative mortality rate is the sum of the age-specific mortality rates from each age band within a pre-defined time period. It is based on multiplicative model of probability theory [8]. Cumulative mortality rate is an indicator of death probability from a cause before a certain age, commonly expressed as a percentage and used as an approximation of the cumulative mortality risk [9, 10]. If one’s life expectancy was longer than 74 years, the probability of death could not be estimated

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