Analysis of landscape pattern vulnerability in Dasi river basin at the optimal scale

Abstract

Since the reform and opening up in 1978, the Dasi River Basin within Jinan’s startup area from replacing old growth drivers with new ones (startup area) has experienced rapid urbanization and industrialization, and the landscape pattern has changed significantly, resulting in a series of eco-environmental problems. In order to more accurately identify the vulnerable areas of landscape pattern, understand their cause mechanism and changing laws, and provide a theoretical basis for the implementation of sustainable landscape pattern planning and management in the region. Four Landsat images of 2002, 2009, 2015 and 2020 were taken as data sources, and the optimal granularity of landscape pattern analysis was determined from the perspective of landscape level and class level by using the coefficient of variation method, granularity effect curve and information loss model, and the optimal amplitude was determined by using the grid method and semi-variance function. Then, the landscape vulnerability assessment model was constructed based on the optimal scale, and its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and spatial autocorrelation were analyzed. The result showed that: (1) The optimal granularity of landscape pattern analysis in this study area was 80 m, and the optimal amplitude was 350 × 350 m. (2) During 2002–2020, the overall vulnerability of landscape pattern in the southern part of the study area showed an increasing trend, while that in the middle and northern parts showed a decreasing trend. (3) The mean values of the vulnerability index of the overall landscape pattern in 2002, 2009, 2015 and 2020 were 0.1479, 0.1483, 0.1562 and 0.1625, respectively, showing an increasing trend year by year. In terms of land use, during 2002–2020, the average vulnerability indices of forestland and built up land increased by 23.18% and 21.43%, respectively, followed by water body and bare land, increased by 12.18% and 9.52%, respectively, while the changes of cropland and grassland were relatively small, increasing by 5.36% and 5.65%, respectively. (4) During 2002–2020, the landscape pattern vulnerability showed a significant spatial positive correlation in terms of spatial distribution. The Low-Low areas were generally transferred from the southeastern and midwestern to the middle and northern, and the High–High areas were mainly transferred from the middle to the southern. Overall, the degree of the spatial agglomeration of the landscape pattern vulnerability showed an increasing trend.