Abstract

Globally, land use is considered as one of the most closely related link between human being and nature. But land use/cover change (LULC) is regarded as the main cause for global environmental change with possible serious impact on human livelihoods and many parts of social and physical environmental aspects. Huai River Basin (HRB) is among the global river-land ecosystems that has been intensively altered by land use change. Unfortunately, the increasing land use change in HRB is not well scientifically addressed and still, related existing problems are not solved putting the basin ecological status and its basic grain production agricultural capacity at risks. This study adopted data image processing software and various mathematical statistical models to analyze the current LULC characteristics and dynamics of change in the study basin. From the analysis that adopted combined scientific techniques of CA-Markov, InVEST models with ArcGIS and IDRISI software, the results indicate that in 20 years of study, area of cultivated land in HRB declined by -4.34%, grassland declined by -21.28%, forest land declined by -3.22% and unused land declined by -18.84% while area of construction land increased by 26.38% and water area increased by 11.62%. Cultivated land was the major land use type in the basin while unused land was the minor land use type. Land use projection trend of HRB in 2035 predicts decline of areas coverage on cultivated land by -6.92%, on forestland by -9.20% and on grassland by -12.29%. But the basin is expected to have area increase on construction land by 30.07%, on water area by 15.03% and on unused land by 18.45%. Pictorial summary for the analysis of land use/cover characteristics and dynamic of changes in HRB is shown below.

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