Analysis of Land Use/Cover Change and Driving Forces in the Selenga River Basin.

Yang Ren,Yan Ding,Zehong Li,Jingnan Li,Xinran Miao

doi:10.3390/s22031041

Abstract

The Selenga River basin is an important section of the Sino-Mongolian Economic Corridor. It is an important connecting piece of the Eurasian Continental Bridge and an important part of Northeast Asia. Against the background of the evolution of the geopolitical pattern since the disintegration of the Soviet Union and global warming, based on the land cover data in the Selenga River basin from 1992, 2000, 2009, and 2015, this paper describes the dynamic changes in land use in the basin. Through a logistic model, the driving factors of land cover change were revealed, and the CA-Markov model was used to predict the land cover pattern of 2027. The results showed that (1) from 1992 to 2015, the agricultural population in the Selenga River basin continued to decrease, which led to a reduction in agricultural sown area. The intensification of climate warming and drying had a significant impact on the spatial distribution of crops. Grassland expansion mostly occurred in areas with relatively abundant rainfall, low temperature, and low human activity. (2) The simulation results showed that, according to the current development trend, the construction land area of the Selenga River basin will be slightly expanded in 2027, the area of arable land and grassland will be slightly reduced, and the areas of forest, water/wetland, and bare land will remain stable. In the future, human activities in the basin will increase in the process of the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. Coupled with global warming, the land/cover of the basin will be affected by both man-made and natural disturbances, and attention should be paid to the possible risk of vegetation degradation.

Highlights

The land cover data of the Selenga River basin were extracted from the global land cover products
In view of the different classifications adopted for the different phases of land cover products in the Selenga River basin required for the study, to meet the research objectives and based on the retrieved datasets, a new classification scheme with nine categories (Table 1) was proposed, comparison of different classification systems as shown in the
From 1992 to 2000, the proportion of cultivated land and coniferous forest in the Selenga River basin increased from 11.14% and 19.56% to 24.41% and 29.75%, respectively; that of mixed forest and shrub decreased from 19.88% and 19.82% to 8.41% and 2.73%, respectively; the area of urban and rural construction land decreased slightly; and the area of broad-leaved forest increased slightly

Summary

Introduction

(2) The simulation results showed that, according to the current development trend, the construction land area of the Selenga River basin will be slightly expanded in 2027, the area of arable land and grassland will be slightly reduced, and the areas of forest, water/wetland, and bare land will remain stable. Land use is the most direct and extensive human activity that changes the natural environment. Land use changes produce significant changes to the land surface and have an impact on the material and energy flows of natural ecosystems, which in turn change the structure and function of ecosystems and affect ecosystem services and human survival and development [1]. The case studies in typical regions can grasp the characteristics of land use and cover change and scientifically explain the impact of human behavior on land cover and the interaction with ecological environment.

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion