Analysis of Land Development Drivers Using Geographically Weighted Ridge Regression

Abstract

Land development processes are driven by complex interactions between socio-economic and spatial factors. Acquiring an understanding of such processes and the underlying procedures helps urban and regional planners, environmental scientists, and policy makers to base their decisions on valid and profound information. In this work, remote-sensing-derived land-cover data were used to characterize the patterns of land development from the beginning of 1985 to the beginning of 2015, in the state of West Virginia (WV), US. We applied spatial pattern analysis, ridge regression, and Geographically Weighted Ridge Regression (GWRR) to examine the impact of population, energy resources, existing land developments dynamics, and economic status on land transformation. We showed that in presence of multicollinearity of explanatory variables, how penalizing regression models in both local and global levels lead to a better fit and decreases the model’s variance. We used geographical error analysis of regression models to visualize the difference between the model estimates and actual values. The findings of this research indicate that because of shifting geography of opportunities, the patterns and processes of land development in the studied region are unstable. This leads to fragmented land developments and prevents formation of large communities.