Analysis of Japan's Long‐Term Energy Outlook Considering Massive Deployment of Variable Renewable Energy under Nuclear Energy Scenario

Abstract

SUMMARYThis paper investigates Japan's long‐term energy outlook to 2050 taking into consideration the massive deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and wind power generation under a nuclear energy scenario. The extensive introduction of PV systems and wind power systems is expected to play an important role in enhancing electricity supply security after the Fukushima nuclear power accident, which has increased the uncertainty of the future additional construction of nuclear power plants in Japan. Against this background, we develop an integrated energy assessment model composed of both an econometric energy demand and supply model and an optimal power generation mix model. The latter model is able to explicitly analyze the impact of output fluctuations for various renewable energy sources at a detailed time resolution of 10 min on 365 consecutive days, incorporating the role of stationary battery technology. The simulation results reveal that intermittent fluctuations derived from a high penetration level of those renewables are controlled by quick load following operation by natural gas combined cycle power plants, pumped‐storage hydro power, stationary battery technology, and output suppression of PV and wind power generation. The results show as well that massive penetration of renewables does not necessarily require a comparable scale of stationary battery capacity. Additionally, in the scenario, which assumes the decommissioning of nuclear power plants with a lifetime of over 40 years, the required PV capacity in 2050 amounts to more than double the PV installation potential in both buildings and abandoned farmland areas.