Analysis of influencing factors of energy consumption in rural Henan based on symbolic regression method and Tapio model

Abstract

ABSTRACT As China’s traditional agricultural province, the rural areas of Henan have experienced phenomenal economic growth while also consuming too much energy. However, few studies have focused on the analysis of rural energy economic development in Henan. For the first time, this paper used the combination of symbolic regression and tapio decoupling analysis, and introduce six factors that best reflect the characteristics of rural energy consumption (E) in Henan Province, such as effective irrigated area (EIA), per capita living space (PLS), total power of agricultural machinery (PAM), Population (POP), per capita income (PI) and total value of agricultural (TVA). This paper collected data from 2000 to 2015 to fit the formula for rural energy consumption in Henan Province based on the Eureqa-formulize software. The conclusion shows that: (1) The most critical factors are affecting the energy consumption in rural is effective irrigated area, total power of agricultural machinery, rural per capita income, per capita living space and total value of agricultural, but the population is not the main factor. (2) The E-EIA decoupling and the E-PLS decoupling have two decoupling status: weak decoupling and expansive negative decoupling. The E-PAM decoupling has three decoupling status: weak decoupling, expansive coupling, and expansive negative decoupling. The E-PI decoupling and the E-TVA decoupling have one decoupling status: weak decoupling. (3) According to the incidence of each influencing factors, from strong to weak is EIA> PLS> PAM> TVA> PI. The five influencing factors have all shown a positive decoupling effect on energy consumptions.