Analysis of Influencing Factors of China's Agricultural Products Exports to SCO Based on CMS Model

Huiqing Sun,Qingrou Zhong,Ling Yang,J Li,K Chen,J Wu

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202125301044

Abstract

This article applies CMS model and selects the data about exports of agricultural products to all the other members of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) except for China from 1998 to 2018 to decompose the influencing factors of exports of agricultural products from China to all the other members of SCO. The results show that the competitiveness effects plays an important role in promoting the growth of exports while structural change effects is the inhibition effect.

Highlights

In Summery, there are less research about the influencing factors of agricultural products' exports increase from China to all the other members of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
2.1 The scale of agricultural products' export has been expanding from China to SCO In 2018, the total value of China's exports of agricultural products to all the other members of SCO reached 3.686 billion dollars which is 60.68% higher than that in 2016, 12.26 times higher than that in 2001, and 8.7 times higher than that in 1998 respectively
The total value of agricultural products' export from China to the other 5 members of original countries increased by 0.217 billion dollars (9.46%) compared with 2016

Summary

Research background

The prospect of global trade in 2021 is predicted to possibility present the L-shape recovery. The total value of agricultural products' export from China to the other 5 members of original countries increased by 0.217 billion dollars (9.46%) compared with 2016. Between 2001 and 2008, the annual growth rate of total value for agricultural products' export from China to all the other members reached 61% It began to decrease in 2009 and did not increase significantly until 2017 when SCO expanded and the total volume of trade increase rapidly, as shown in Table. The exports from China to Russia rank the first place compared to other countries for a long time It accounted for over 80% of total exports from China to all the other members of SCO between 1998 and 2016, and decreased to over 50% when SCO expanded in 2017, but absolute amount still increase. The data between 1998 and 2016 is the trade between China and the original 5 members of SCO but the data after 2017 is the trade between China and 7 members

Model Construction

Empirical Analysis

Findings

Conclusions and Recommendations