Abstract
Rear-end collision accounts for the main type of traffic accidents occurring on the freeway. In order to extract the significant influence factors of rear-end collision on the freeway, this study utilized the data of freeway traffic accidents between 2010 and 2015 in China. First, based on quasi-induced exposure theory, the information of driver, vehicle, and road environment was analyzed. Gender, age, driving age, vehicle safety, load, weather, fatigue, driving speed, road alignment, accident time, and visibility were selected as the important factors that might affect rear-end collision. Second, based on logistic regression model, the influencing factors analysis model of freeway rear-end collision was established. In the regression analysis, the possible important factors selected were taken as the independent variables, and the accident responsibility was taken as the dependent variable. Then, the factors that had significant influence on rear-end collision were selected from candidate independent variables by stepwise regression method. Finally, the specific influence of driving age, load, weather, accident time, visibility, fatigue, and driving speed on rear-end collision occurring on the freeway was discussed. The analysis results were explained according to the odds ratio. The research results of this article can provide guidance for the prevention of rear-end collision on the freeway and theoretical support for the development of freeway early warning system.
Highlights
Freeway has the advantages of high running speed, large traffic capacity, and low transportation cost
According to the traffic accident data provided by the Traffic Management Bureau of the Public Security Ministry, the rear-end collision is a very common type of traffic accident that occurs on the freeway
According to the existing data samples of rear-end collision, this article analyzed the specific influence of significant factors on the freeway rear-end collision based on the quasi-induced exposure theory and the logistic regression model
Summary
Freeway has the advantages of high running speed, large traffic capacity, and low transportation cost. During the past 10 years, traffic mileage of freeway has increased rapidly in China. It was calculated that traffic mileage of freeway in China had exceeded 130,000 kilometers by the end of 2016. According to the existing data samples of rear-end collision, this article analyzed the specific influence of significant factors on the freeway rear-end collision based on the quasi-induced exposure theory and the logistic regression model. Based on the quasi-induced exposure theory, the important factors that might affect the occurrence of rear-end collision were preliminarily screened out.
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