Analysis of influencing factors and prediction of China’s Containerized Freight Index

Abstract

China, as a major maritime nation, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) serves as an objective reflection of the Chinese shipping market and an important indicator for understanding China’s shipping industry globally. The shipping market is a complex ecosystem influenced by various factors, including vessel supply and demand, cargo supply and demand relationships and prices, fuel prices, and competition from substitute and complementary markets. To analyze and study the state of the Chinese shipping market, we selected the CCFI as an indicator and collected data on six factors that may affect the overall shipping market. These factors include “ the China Coastal Bulk Freight Index(CCBFI)”, “the Baltic Dry Index(BDI)”, “the Yangtze River Container Freight Index”, “Global: Aluminum (minimum purity of 99.5%, London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price): UK landed price”, “Major Ports: Container Throughput”, and “Coal Price: US Central Appalachia: Coal Spot Price Index”. Then, we constructed an analyticaland predictive framework using Deep Neural Network (DNN), CatBoost regression model, and robust regression model to study the CCFI. Based on the R2 results of the three models, it is evident that DNN provides the best analytical and predictive performance for the CCFI, accurately forecasting its changes. Additionally, the robust regression model indicates that “Global: Aluminum (minimum purity of 99.5%, LME spot price): UK landed price” has the greatest impact on the CCFI. Finally, from a business perspective, we provide some suggestions for China’s container shipping industry.