Analysis of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

Abstract

A systematic methodology for assessing hydrogeologic conceptual model, parameter, and scenario uncertainties is being developed to support technical reviews of environmental assessments related to decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The first major task being undertaken is to produce a coupled parameter and conceptual model uncertainty assessment methodology. This task is based on previous studies that have primarily dealt individually with these two types of uncertainties. Conceptual model uncertainty analysis is based on the existence of alternative conceptual models that are generated using a set of clearly stated guidelines targeted at the needs of NRC staff. Parameter uncertainty analysis makes use of generic site characterization data as well as site-specific characterization and monitoring data to evaluate parameter uncertainty in each of the alternative conceptual models. Propagation of parameter uncertainty will be carried out through implementation of a general stochastic model of groundwater flow and transport in the saturated and unsaturated zones. Evaluation of prediction uncertainty will make use of Bayesian model averaging and visualization of model results. The goal of this study is to develop a practical tool to quantify uncertainties in the conceptual model and parameters identified in performance assessments.