Abstract
An early warning of a flash flood is essential to prevent the general public from the hazardous flooding events, however, the rapid variation of human activities has led to the uncertainty of risk in prone areas. The lack of a systematic record of flash flood events introduces challenges to flash flood-related research. Herein, we map spatial and temporal variations in flash floods in China from 1950 to 2015 and establish a general ordered logit model in a geographic information environment to estimate the association between the occurrence of flash flood events and natural conditions and the variation of human activities at the watershed level. The results showed that precipitation is an important cause of flash flooding, and demonstrate that anthropogenic intervention (heavy rainfall, density of villages, and vegetation cover) in the environment affect the likelihood of flash floods. We found that the likelihood of flash floods in China may increase with the air quality worsening and that the occurrence of flash floods is strongly correlated with vegetation cover. Our findings suggest a need for further investigation of the link between air quality and flash flooding in flood-prone areas.
Highlights
IntroductionAn early warning of a flash flood is essential to prevent the general public from the hazardous flooding events, the rapid variation of human activities has led to the uncertainty of risk in prone areas
Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
60,000 records, establish a general ordered logit model in a geographic information environment to estimate the association between the occurrence of flash flood events and natural and human activities at the watershed level in flood-prone areas
Summary
An early warning of a flash flood is essential to prevent the general public from the hazardous flooding events, the rapid variation of human activities has led to the uncertainty of risk in prone areas. China from 1950 to 2015 and establish a general ordered logit model in a geographic information environment to estimate the association between the occurrence of flash flood events and natural conditions and the variation of human activities at the watershed level. The results showed that precipitation is an important cause of flash flooding, and demonstrate that anthropogenic intervention (heavy rainfall, density of villages, and vegetation cover) in the environment affect the likelihood of flash floods. We found that the likelihood of flash floods in China may increase with the air quality worsening and that the occurrence of flash floods is strongly correlated with vegetation cover. Flash flood scaused an average of 800 deaths or missing persons per year between 2010 and 2016, and in this respect, they have become the major cause of injuries and casualties in China [10]
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