Abstract
Introduction : Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a life-threatening public health problem in China, accounting for ~90% of HFRS cases reported globally. Accurate analysis and prediction of the HFRS epidemic could help to establish effective preventive measures.Materials and Methods : In this study, the geographical information system (GIS) explored the spatiotemporal features of HFRS, the wavelet power spectrum (WPS) unfolded the cyclical fluctuation of HFRS, and the wavelet neural network (WNN) model predicted the trends of HFRS outbreaks in mainland China.Results : A total of 209,209 HFRS cases were reported in mainland China from 2004 to 2019, with the annual incidence ranged from 0 to 13.05 per 100,0000 persons at the province level. The WPS proved that the periodicity of HFRS could be half a year, 1 year, and roughly 7-year at different time intervals. The WNN structure of 12-6-1 was set up as the fittest forecasting model for the HFRS epidemic.Conclusions : This study provided several potential support tools for the control and risk-management of HFRS in China.
Highlights
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a life-threatening public health problem in China, accounting for ∼90% of HFRS cases reported globally
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne infectious disease caused by hantaviruses in Europe and Asia [1, 2]
HFRS is an infectious disease caused by hantaviruses, with relatively high prevalence and mortality, which has brought a severe threat to human health during the past decades
Summary
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a life-threatening public health problem in China, accounting for ∼90% of HFRS cases reported globally. Accurate analysis and prediction of the HFRS epidemic could help to establish effective preventive measures. Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne infectious disease caused by hantaviruses in Europe and Asia [1, 2]. China has the highest incidence of HFRS and reported ∼90% of HFRS cases globally in the last few decades [3]. Preventive and management measures have been implemented and played essential roles in HFRS control, including rodent elimination, vaccination to a high-risk population, and health education [1, 4]. Epidemiological surveillance of the temporal and spatial distribution of HFRS contributes to identifying its outbreak regularity, epidemic areas, and high-risk populations. Statistical models are needed to describe and forecast HFRS outbreaks accurately, which is essential for reducing HFRS incidence
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