Analysis of Grid Response Strategies for the Safety Behavior Risk Events of Transportation System Based on System Dynamics—“the Assistant Watchman Does Not Appear as Required”

Abstract

Employees are the most important and dynamic elements in the railway transportation system. How to achieve accurate control of inertial violation of “key person, key matter, key period”, and formulate more personalized risk response strategy is a thorny problem that faced by safety managers. The existing risk response usually takes control measures from the perspective of the system as a whole, ignoring the heterogeneity of risk, and the selection of response strategies only considers the target risks to be dealt with, ignoring the secondary risks that may occur in the process of risk response, or the residual risks formed by changing the existing risk, coupled with the lack of quantitative evaluation of risk response effect, resulting in poor risk response effect. By introducing the grid theory and taking the risk event of “the assistant watchman does not appear as required” at Huangyangcheng station of Shenshuo Railway as an example, this study constructs a grid response model of the assistant watchman risk events based on system dynamics. Through the grid division, the model accurately locates and classifies the assistant watchman on duty. Then, during the system dynamics simulation process, the hazard factor is regarded as a bridge, and the traditional virtual boundary of system simulation is transformed into accurate grid definition. By improving the response strategy of safety behavior risk event of the assistant watchman on duty in cell grid and using Vensim-PLE software for personalized simulation, the intervention of “the assistant watchman does not appear as required” risk event is transformed from qualitative analysis to dynamic quantitative mathematical model, so as to realize the personalized response simulation analysis of employees in the grid.