Abstract
Based on the grain production data of the counties (cities, districts) in Poyang Lake Basin, this paper uses the productivity index of Epsilon Based Measure of Malmquist Luenberger (EBM-ML Index) to analyse the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of grain in Poyang Lake Basin. Kernel density function and Markov analysis are used to discuss the dynamic evolution process of the distribution of GTFP of grain. The results show the following: (1) From the time dimension, the GTFP of grain is on the rise and fluctuates more frequently from 2001 to 2017, and its trend of change is determined by the combination of technical efficiency and technological progress. Moreover, from a spatial dimension, the number of counties (cities, districts) with GTFP of grain greater than 1.0 has shown an overall increase, indicating that the overall level of GTFP of grain is increasing. (2) According to the kernel density estimation results, the crest of the main peak of the kernel density curve corresponding to the GTFP of grain in Poyang Lake Basin shifts to the right, and the area formed by the right part of the GTFP of grain corresponding to the crest of the main peak of its kernel density curve gradually increases. The peak of the kernel density curve changes from “multi-peak mode” to “single-peak mode,” and the height of the main peak of the kernel density curve of GTFP of grain shows an overall decrease. Meanwhile, the right tail of the kernel density curve shows an overall extending trend. (3) According to the estimation results of the Markov chain, the GTFP of grain in Poyang Lake Basin is highly mobile from 2001 to 2017, and the counties (cities, districts) have a certain degree of agglomeration in the low, medium-low, medium-high and high levels. In other words, the long-term equilibrium state of growth of GTFP of grain remains dispersed in the state space of four level types, indicating that the divergence state of GTFP of grain in counties (cities, districts) of Poyang Lake Basin will continue for a long time in the future. The study reveals the evolution and dynamic change of GTFP of grain in Poyang Lake Basin, which has important theoretical significance and practical value for optimizing the spatial pattern and realizing the balanced development of GTFP among counties (cities, districts) of Poyang Lake Basin and consolidating China’s food security strategy.
Highlights
Shi et al [22] used the method of panel unit root to conduct random convergence test for regional differences of total factor productivity of China’s agriculture from 1993 to 2013, and the results showed that the inter-provincial gap of agricultural total factor productivity in China would exist for a long time
Lake Basin from 2001 to 2017, and draws the following conclusions: (1) In general, the annual average of green total factor productivity (GTFP) of grain in Poyang Lake Basin from 2001 to 2017 is 1.0136, which indicates that the annual average growth rate of GTFP of grain is 1.36%
(2) According to the results of kernel density estimation, the GTFP of the grain of Poyang Lake Basin corresponding to the main peak of kernel density curve moves to the right, and the area formed by the right part of GTFP of grain corresponding to the main peak of kernel density curve increases gradually
Summary
Grain is the material basis for human survival and development, and is an important guarantee for national economic development, social harmony and stability and national security. In the context of the global outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, the nature of its strategic value has been highlighted. It is an important guarantee for national economic development, social harmony and stability and national security. Food security is the foundation of the development of the national economy, which is of great significance in promoting the construction of ecological civilization and strengthening the strategy of rural revitalization for China. The Chinese government attaches foremost importance to food security and has introduced a series of “supporting agriculture, supporting agriculture and benefiting agriculture” policies. In October 2015, during the Fifth Plenary Session of the
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